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It is very possible that Byron Buxton‘s knee is chronically and/or structurally compromised, in which case this year will only serve as a harbinger of things to come. Maybe he never bounces back from this and his body ends up forcing him to retire at any early age. Could happen.

But frankly, I’ve been hearing way too many Twins fans treat that as a casual assumption, forgetting the fact that Buxton has rebounded from injury time and time again in the past, and isn’t yet 30. I find it annoying.

There’s just not a lot of value in hand-wringing over the scenario where Buxton’s days as a productive player are over — even if you see it as probable. 

We don’t need to sugarcoat the fact that things looked bleak this year: his surgically repaired knee never seemed right, forced him into (ineffectual) designated hitter duty in the first half, and shut him down after early August. When Buxton limped out up to the plate for a fruitless pinch-hitting appearance late in Wednesday’s elimination game, it was simultaneously a cool and sad moment.

A sign of the end for this broken-down superstar? Not necessarily.

Leading up the postseason, as Buxton pushed himself to become viable for the ALWC roster, he spoke with La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune. One thing that struck me about Buck’s quotes in the article was how he seemingly attributed much of his difficulty in 2023 to the arthroscopic knee surgery he’d undergone the previous offseason.

“I was still coming off surgery,” Buxton said. “I had never played a year following knee surgery. I was still trying to figure this out, all year.”

Neal’s article also included this tidbit:

Quote

 

One encouraging sign for the future is that Twins trainer Nick Paparesta noted recently the surgically repaired part of Buxton’s knee continues to improve. And there’s no indication the injury could be a problem next year or beyond.

“Not that I know of,” Buxton said. “I just didn’t know how I was going to be coming off of surgery.”

 

Probably (okay definitely) an optimistic spin from La Velle there, but the underlying point is a valid one: sometimes it takes a while for the body to bounce back from surgery, even a supposedly “minor” one.

Just ask Joe Mauer.

After injuring his knee late in the 2010 season, Mauer underwent arthroscopic surgery during the offseason. The following season was a disaster, for both the team and Mauer specifically. He posted career-worst numbers and missed two months while taking fire from fans who were befuddled by the team’s “bilateral leg weakness” diagnosis.

He was 28 (one year younger than Buxton is now) and the vagueness of his health situation left many wondering what Mauer’s future would look like.

Later on, as things came into focus, it became clear that the catcher simply struggled physically to rebound from knee surgery and probably pushed himself back too soon.

And here’s the upshot: in 2012, once Mauer had another offseason to recover and distance himself from the knee surgery, he was pretty much back to his regular self. He played 147 games, made the All-Star team, and led the league in OBP. The surgery worked, it just took a little longer than some would’ve liked.

Mauer was in the same form in 2013 up until another unrelated injury came along and DID permanently alter the course of his career. That sort of thing will be an ongoing concern for Buxton even if he can get past the knee issues. 

But the point is that his injury-wrecked 2023 campaign does not indicate that Buxton’s knee is shot. The body works in unpredictable ways and there’s no telling what another offseason building back (without pushing recklessly toward a return to the field) could do for the formerly elite slugger, still owed $75 million and heavily incentivized to add onto that number by returning to MVP form

 

I’m hanging onto that hope as we head into this offseason, while acknowledging that the Twins front office absolutely needs to prepare themselves with strong contingencies in center field, as they did this year.